Survivor Pool Strategy: When to Use the Best Teams

A survivor pool looks simple: pick one team to win each week, never use a team twice, and lose once and you are out. The strategy is all in the tension between surviving this week and having good teams left later.

Don't burn your best team in Week 1

The safest pick on the board is tempting every week. But if you use the best team in September, you will not have it in December when the choices are thinner. A good habit is to look for a team that is clearly better than its opponent this week but is not one of the two or three strongest teams in the league.

Look ahead at the schedule

Before the season, or at least before each week, look at when the strong teams have their easiest games. A good team at home against a weak opponent in Week 11 might be worth saving for exactly that week. Planning three or four weeks ahead keeps you from painting yourself into a corner.

Think about what everyone else is picking

In a big pool, the most popular pick each week matters. If 60 percent of the pool is on one team and that team loses, more than half the pool is gone in one afternoon, and your odds of winning jump if you were on someone else. Going against the crowd with a slightly riskier team can pay off, but only when the popular pick really is shaky.

Home field and rest still matter

Teams coming off a short week, traveling across the country, or playing a division rival tend to be less predictable. Those are fine reasons to pass on a team that looks good on paper.

How strikes change everything

Many pools now use two strikes: your first loss does not knock you out. That changes the math. Early in the season you can take a little more risk, because one bad pick is survivable, and the pool lasts longer, which keeps more people interested.

Double-pick weeks late in the season

Some pools require two picks a week after Thanksgiving, which drains the remaining good teams fast. If your pool does this, saving strong teams matters even more, because you will need two each week.

Buy-backs

A buy-back lets an eliminated player rejoin once, usually for another entry fee, before a deadline. It keeps the pool bigger, and for strategy it means an early loss is not the end. Know the deadline before you take a big early risk.

On Sports Picker, commissioners can set classic, two-strike or three-strike survivor, add double-pick weeks and allow buy-backs. Start a survivor pool, or try against the spread if your group wants a challenge every game.

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